Government Claims: Jobs and Starts Estimates

Mike critiques the government's stimulus estimates and explains limits of elasticity-based predictions in this market.

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Transcript

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Transcript

Episode notes

For years, the Missing Middle team has advocated for reducing the tax burden on new construction. With pre-construction sales down 95% in some GTA markets, the industry has hit a wall where it simply makes no financial sense to build.

In this week’s episode, we answer some of the questions and misconceptions we’ve read online about the new HST rebate on new homes.

Beyond the rebate, they explore bigger structural challenges like land costs, zoning, and competition in development. The key question remains whether this policy can meaningfully increase supply in a market that is still not functioning normally.

If the goal is to improve affordability, the HST rebate may help, but it is only one part of a much larger housing problem.

Chapters:

00:00 - Gov Announces HST Rebate and Reduced Development Charges

01:22 - Overview of HST Changes

01:52 - History of Previous Rental and Ownership Rebates

02:58 - Expanding Eligibility Beyond First-Time Buyers

05:32 - Addressing the "Demand Subsidy" Misconception

07:25 - Will Developers Pass Savings to the Buyer?

09:04 - The Impact on Land Values and the Need for Reform

10:05 - Historical Comparison of Government Taxes and Fees

11:26 - How Accurate are the Government Numbers?

12:42 - Projected Impact and the One-Year Program Limit