My guest today is Spyros Makridakis, the Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world's leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is famous as the organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions. His calling is to poke holes in the notion that we can forecast with accuracy.
The topic is his paper Why Forecasts Fail. What to Do Instead.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
- Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
- The two main types of uncertainty–"subway" and "coconut"
- Jim Collins, one of the best-selling business book authors of all time, and why it might not have any use to us
- Medicine and chance
- The placebo effect
- Acceptance of an uncertain world
- The illusion of control
Jump in!
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I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.
To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/
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