When is it safe to rise again?

The war against the Islamic Republic may be entering a new phase after Israeli drone strikes targeted Basij checkpoints in Tehran. The Basij — a paramilitary force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — has long been responsible for carrying out repression and violently suppressing protests across Iran.

In this episode of Eye for Iran, John Hannah, who served in senior foreign policy positions for both Democratic and Republican administrations, including as former Vice President Dick Cheney’s National Security Advisor from 2005–2009 and Deputy National Security Advisor for the Middle East from 2001–2005, explains why these strikes could mark a turning point that may weaken the regime’s ability to control the streets and potentially shift the balance in favor of the Iranian people.

Meanwhile, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to appear publicly. Instead, his first communication reportedly came in the form of a written message rather than a video statement — raising new questions about who is truly in charge. A panel of experts, including historian Shahram Kholdi, former U.S. government appointee Shayan Samii, and former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed, analyzes what the message said and what it may reveal about the power struggle inside the regime.

Finally, actress and producer Tara Grammy shares messages from inside Tehran, describing how many Iranians are experiencing the war — and why some say decades of repression have reshaped how they view danger, and hope for change.

Contents for this video:

00:00 Introduction
02:19 John Hannah: Basij checkpoints hit in Tehran
03:10 John Hannah: Could this fracture the regime?
05:08 John Hannah: Is this phase two of the war?
07:42 John Hannah: Can the opposition seize the moment?
09:32 John Hannah: When is it safe for Iranians to rise up?
11:00 John Hannah: What does regime change mean?
12:54 John Hannah: FBI warning and retaliation fears
14:34 John Hannah: Was wider escalation inevitable?
16:10 John Hannah: Military success vs political success
17:49 John Hannah: Is this also about China?
20:51 John Hannah: Message to the axis of aggressors
23:11 John Hannah: How long can the regime survive?
25:00 John Hannah: Advice to Trump
30:01 Shahram Kholdi, Shayan Samii and Avi Melamed join
30:15 Shahram Kholdi: Where is Mojtaba Khamenei?
33:57 Avi Melamed: Who is really in charge?
35:14 Shayan Samii: Who is Mojtaba Khamenei?
39:24 Shahram Kholdi: What did the alleged message say?
47:23 Avi Melamed: What is Israel’s endgame?
53:44 Shayan Samii: Mojtaba’s message and what it means
58:12 Shahram Kholdi: Is the IRGC running the show?
01:03:58 Avi Melamed: What Mojtaba’s silence suggests
01:06:45 Tara Grammy joins Eye for Iran
01:07:30 Tara Grammy: Why some Iranians cheer the bombs
01:08:56 Tara Grammy: Threat normalization and trauma
01:13:02 Tara Grammy: Why outsiders do not understand
01:17:19 Tara Grammy: A 1% chance at freedom
01:18:34 Tara Grammy: The bombs and the regime
01:20:14 Tara Grammy: Voices from inside Iran
01:21:52 Tara Grammy: January 8 and 9 changed everything
01:24:44 Tara Grammy: The role of the diaspora
01:26:55 Tara Grammy: The message from inside Iran — regime change
01:28:33 Tara Grammy: Shoot-to-kill orders and hospital killings
01:30:35 Tara Grammy: Why the world ignores the massacre
01:32:18 Tara Grammy: What the West should be talking about
01:33:06 Outro

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