Underlying US Economic Strength

The Federal Reserve is universally expected to leave policy unchanged. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference excites attention for three reasons. 1. Powell may stay as Fed Chair beyond May, so is a less lame “lame duck” leader. 2. Markets want to know the Fed’s reaction to oil prices and the war. US retail gasoline prices are almost exactly a dollar (35.5%) above 2026 lows, having risen every day for four weeks. The Fed’s concern is second-round effects.