DCF basics: risk-free rate to terminal value

In this episode of Mostly Growth, the number one podcast in product monetization, CJ and Kyle celebrate their 50th episode and reflect on what they’ve learned after 50+ hours on the mic. Then they dive into the shift from revenue multiples to EBITDA, why SaaS lost its shortcut, how valuation actually works (DCF, comps, precedent deals), and what AI-driven uncertainty means for pricing, fundraising, and exits.

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SPONSORS:

HockeyStack is an AI platform for modern go-to-market teams that unifies sales, marketing, and customer data into a single system of action. With AI agents that prospect accounts, support reps, improve forecasting, and automate what’s already working, HockeyStack helps teams move faster without guessing. Trusted by companies like RingCentral, Outreach, ActiveCampaign, and Fortune 100 teams—learn more at https://www.hockeystack.com

RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com

Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities to automating painful procurement workflows and giving you the best market data to turn vendor negotiations in your favor, Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit https://www.tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.

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LINKS: 

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/=

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TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 Preview and Intro

3:19 Show intro

3:42 Revenue multiples topic intro

5:23 Current multiples: Figma to Palantir

6:36 Median at 3.1x, lowest in 8 years

7:21 Why is the revenue multiple dying?

8:38 Terminal value conundrum

9:15 DCF walkthrough

10:01 Sponsors — HockeyStack | RightRev | Tropic

13:42 Why 2021 valuations were so high

16:30 Gross margins matter

18:24 Three ways to value a company

20:24 Comps

22:04 Precedent transactions

22:26 What this means for operators

24:27 EBITDA multiples today

25:54 Low EBITDA examples: PayPal, Zoom

27:47 The prisoner's dilemma

29:22 Growth investor anecdote

30:38 Takeaways

31:29 Fun facts: securitizing cheese

32:51 VC paid ads debate

36:09 Credits

#MostlyGrowthPodcast #SaaS #Valuation #RevenueMultiples #FinanceLeadership