Possible Outcomes: Venezuela Model or Regime Collapse

In Episode 466 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joshua Landis, professor of Middle East Studies and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, about the US-Israel war against Iran, what it reveals about American strategy in the region, and why the absence of a clear theory of victory raises the specter of yet another catastrophic regime-change war in the Middle East.

Kofinas and Landis examine the competing narratives surrounding the conflict — from the argument that the Trump administration was dragged into war by Israel, to the theory that Washington concluded Iran would never voluntarily relinquish its nuclear program, to speculation that the campaign is part of a broader grand strategy aimed at neutralizing a Chinese forward base in the Middle East ahead of Trump's summit with Xi Jinping.

They also discuss why Iran's regime is far more institutionalized and resilient than the Arab governments the United States has previously sought to topple, the historical lessons of America's last four regime-change wars — Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya — and why the pattern of civil war, refugee crises, and strategic blowback that followed each of those interventions is likely to repeat itself in a country of over 90 million people.

The conversation closes with an examination of the broader regional realignment now underway, including the emerging Turkey-Saudi axis taking shape in response to Israeli dominance, the dangerous irony of simultaneously abandoning the Syrian Kurds while attempting to arm the Kurds of northern Iran, and the most plausible optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for how this conflict ultimately resolves.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 03/04/2026