When Buffers Run Out: Timing of the Shock

Ten weeks into the war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The ceasefire is officially holding, but occasional attacks on ships and installations continue. A difficult question is coming into focus: what if the strait never fully reopens?

Host Ed Crooks is joined by regular contributor Amy Myers Jaffe, Director of the Global Energy, Climate, and Sustainability Lab at NYU, alongside two guests. Edward (Eddie) Fishman is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Choke Points, a history of economic warfare. Christopher Aversano is Wood Mackenzie's Director of Maritime Partnerships, returning to give the view from the shipping industry.

Chris reports that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz had risen from around 10 a day at the low point to roughly 25 a day, but then dropped off again as tensions escalated and the threat of renewed fighting rose. Even at their best, the number of transits has been just a fraction of the 150-170 a day that was normal before the war began at the end of February.

Some ships are still making it through the strait. Some LNG carriers have “gone dark”, shutting off their transponders, later reappearing weeks later on the other side of the world. Ship owners are pragmatic, Chris says, and high commodity prices create a strong financial incentive for tankers to pass through the strait when they can. But questions of insurance, crew safety, and freedom of navigation through the strait remain unresolved.

Eddie says the US decision on what to do next is like a choice between two doors . Door one would be a negotiated deal that leaves Iran as gatekeeper of the Strait of Hormuz. Door two would be full-scale military intervention, which seems politically impossible. With neither option palatable, the result is drift. His base case is that Iran retains permanent control. A toll of $2 million per ship passing through the strait could generate $30-100 billion a year for Tehran, potentially exceeding its oil export earnings. The drones needed to enforce the closure can cost as little as $20,000 each.

Amy argues the full impact of closing the strait has not yet hit. Emergency releases of oil from reserves, shadow cargoes from sanction ed countries that were already on the water, and seasonal refinery maintenance have all cushioned the blow. The real test comes in the weeks ahead, as those buffers run out. Ed argues that if the strait stays closed for six more months, oil at $150-$200 a barrel may be needed to balance the market, with a global recession as the likely consequence.

The conversation broadens into the geopolitics of the dollar. Eddie explains why the US currency remains the backbone of global trade, involved in 90 per cent of all foreign exchange transactions, and why that gives the US government powerful strategic leverage. Amy suggests that China may see US entanglement in the strait as strategically useful, draining American resources without it lifting a finger.

The episode closes with a warning. Eddie argues the weaponisation of American economic power against allies as well as adversaries risks fragmenting the global trading system further, with potentially disastrous consequences. History shows that when states cannot secure resources through open exchange, they tend to be tempted into conquest.

‘Chokepoints : American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare’ by Edward Fishman, published by Penguin, is available from bookstores now.

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