Article 5, Gray Zone and Alliance Responses

Day 1,446.

Today, in a rare public outburst against the Trump administration, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accuses the United States of “backtracking” on the so-called Anchorage Agreement, under which Washington allegedly agreed to pressure Ukraine into ceding parts of the Donbas that Russian forces have failed to capture after nearly four years of war. We examine President Zelensky’s comments suggesting that a new White House peace deadline may be linked to Donald Trump’s US midterm election campaign, and report on how Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is seeking to leverage the war in Ukraine to shore up domestic political support. And later, we speak to the former commander of US forces in Europe, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, about the state of the war and how prepared Europe and NATO are for a potential Russian move on the Suwałki Gap.

Contributors

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Executive Editor for Audio). @FrancisDearnley on X.

With thanks to Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges (former commander of US forces in Europe). @general_ben on X.

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CONTENT REFERENCED:

A small Russian force could break Nato, it’s being said. As a US general, here’s my take (Ben Hodges in The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/05/russian-wargame-nato-defeat-suwalki-gap-general-ben/ 

Russia offered US £9tn co-operation deal, Zelensky says (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/07/us-gives-june-deadline-peace-ukraine-russia/ 

Would the US military obey Trump on Greenland? US General Ben Hodges answers (Battle Lines episode):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mcz_bDmXjE 

The German wargame (Die Welt):

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article6984a7189d88d6e920be111f/ernstfall-podcast-wargame-exposes-gaps-in-germanys-response-to-a-hypothetical-russian-attack-on-lithuania.html 

Russia accuses US of backing out of alleged Ukraine territory surrender agreement (The Telegraph):

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-accuses-us-of-backing-out-of-alleged-ukraine-surrender-agreement/ 

Washington Post GoFundMe:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-for-washington-post-international-employees 

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