Explaining the Shanghai Premium

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

Alexander Campbell, founder of Rose AI and former head of commodities at Bridgewater, joins the show to dissect the structural drivers behind the silver market and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. Campbell details the "Silver Squeeze" thesis, attributing the metal's volatility to a combination of inelastic industrial demand from solar manufacturing and speculative capital flight out of China. He clarifies complex market dynamics, specifically the "Shanghai Premium" and the logistical friction involved in moving physical metal between Western and Eastern exchanges. Shifting to technology, Campbell warns of an impending "air pocket" for traditional software stocks, arguing that AI agents will disrupt companies that function primarily as "a database and a front end". He outlines a future defined by local compute and open-source models, predicting that value will accrue to data ownership and physical hardware rather than legacy SaaS applications. The conversation concludes with Campbell’s macro strategy of being long the "world of stuff" and data while betting against the "economy of paper" amidst de-globalization. Recorded February 2, 2026.

Alex’s pieces:

“Silver: The Only Money That Generates Electricity”: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/silver-the-only-money-that-generates

“The Silver Squeeze”: How Solar Threatens a Decade of Deficits

https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-silver-squeeze

“When You Feel Pain, Remember to Reflect”: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/when-you-feel-pain-remember-to-reflect

“The Protection Portfolio: September 2025”:https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-protection-portfolio-september

Follow Alex Campbell on X https://x.com/abcampbell

Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

World Silver Survey 2025:https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/World_Silver_Survey-2025.pdf

November 2025 Interim Market Review: https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Silver_Institute_Silver_Interim_2025.pdf

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