How Macro Influences Portfolio Risk

I joined Justin Carbonneau for one more special episode of Excess Returns.

We spoke with Chris Bloomstran soon after his famous annual letter release, and right before the Berkshire meeting in Omaha.

Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧

I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Justin and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.

This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing today’s equity investors. The conversation explores whether we are at a secular valuation plateau, how AI investment may reshape returns, and why passive investors may face more risk than they realize.

Semper Augustus Investments

https://www.semperaugustus.com

Topics covered:

• Why extreme market concentration in the Mag 7 may create long-term risks

• The concept of a “secular plateau” vs a market peak

• How AI capex could become a classic capital cycle with poor returns

• Why hyperscaler spending may not translate into shareholder profits

• The hidden risks of leverage both on and off balance sheets

• Why buy-and-hold investing is harder than it seems in practice

• How valuation discipline drives long-term investment outcomes

• Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position and what it signals about opportunity

• Why capital allocation matters more than growth narratives

• Lessons from past bubbles including railroads, fiber, and the Nifty Fifty

• The fragility of life and how it shapes investing priorities

• The importance of independent thinking in the age of AI

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement

Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.