Trade Deficits and Dollar Mechanics

Today, Cem Karsan sits down with Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces quietly shaping markets beneath the surface. From the persistence of fiscal dominance to the role of populism, demographics, and global power shifts, they explore why the current macro regime may be far harder to reverse than many expect. The discussion moves beyond economics into politics, examining how inequality, globalization, and technological change feed into inflation dynamics and policy decisions. They also tackle the future of the dollar, the risks to its global dominance, and the complex role of crypto in a system defined by power, incentives, and control.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:00 - Introduction to the episode and trading floor setting

00:01:28 - Cem introduces Lyn Alden and frames the macro discussion

00:02:23 - Lyn outlines her framework and the rise of fiscal dominance

00:05:31 - Multipolar world and shifting reserve currency dynamics

00:06:20 - Why debt cycles lead to persistent fiscal expansion

00:13:42 - Debate on debt, modern monetary theory, and dollar privilege

00:18:29 - Populism, inequality, and political drivers of inflation

00:24:25 - Trade deficits, globalization, and domestic consequences

00:30:20 - What happens if dollar dominance weakens

00:34:16 - Comparing today to the 1940s vs the 1970s

00:41:47 - Democracy, authoritarian drift, and rule of law

00:44:17 - AI, productivity, and inflationary policy responses

00:56:08 - Lyn’s views on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and crypto markets

01:03:34 - Debate on the long term sustainability of crypto

01:09:42 - Closing thoughts on power, money, and the macro outlook

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer