Will market forces push ships back through Hormuz?

Tanker traffic dries up, oil, gas and fertilizer prices soar, and the world holds its breath

The Strait of Hormuz has long been discussed as one of the single greatest vulnerabilities in global energy supply. Now the risk has become reality. Host Ed Crooks is joined by Amy Myers Jaffe, Director of NYU's Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab, and Chris Aversano, Director of Maritime Partnerships at Wood Mackenzie, to assess what the disruption means for energy markets, supply chains, and the people at the centre of it all.

Oil prices briefly spiked to around $119 a barrel before falling back. European natural gas prices have nearly doubled. But those numbers only tell part of the story. In normal times, between 150 and 175 ships would pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Since the war began, that has fallen to perhaps 10 to 12 a day. The Strait is a vital artery for the world’s energy and fertilizer supplies. If it is blocked for long, the results could be catastrophic.

Amy puts the market's reaction in context. She has been studying the Strait of Hormuz since the 1990s, and says that although the geography is still the same, the technology is different. The threat from drones, drone boats, and other weapons of asymmetric warfare may be harder to neutralise than the weapons that shaped earlier thinking. As she puts it, modern threats to shipping are “not your father's Oldsmobile”.

Chris highlights the human dimension of the conflict. An estimated 20,000 seafarers are currently trapped inside the war zone, alongside a further 15,000 people on cruise ships and ferries. Seven merchant mariners have been killed so far, in 13 confirmed or suspected attacks. These are civilians, Chris reminds us: workers sending money home to countries such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and India, or in Eastern Europe, who never expected to find themselves victims of an armed conflict.

The discussion also gets into the practicalities of what it would take to restore flows through the Strait. The US government has announced a $20 billion insurance facility to cover hull, machinery and cargo for ships in the Gulf. As Chris explains, that still leaves indemnity insurance, covering liability for spills and other damage, entirely unaddressed. A fully-laden VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) tanker and its cargo is worth upwards of $300 million. Cleaning up a spill of its cargo of 2 million barrels of oil could cost multiples of that.

Routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz are already being activated. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to Yanbu, on the Red Sea coast, has seen throughput surge from around 730,000 barrels a day to as much as 2.5 million b/d. The UAE pipeline to Fujairah offers additional relief. But as Amy makes clear, these routes cannot come close to replacing the Strait of Hormuz in full. They do not help Iraq or Kuwait. They carry no LNG. And for refined products, there is no pipeline alternative at all.

The episode closes with a broader look at what this crisis means for the future of energy. Amy argues that it reinforces the case for clean technology: when an oil price shock arrives, investment in renewables, EVs, and energy storage tends to follow. Ed points to Europe, now seeing its gas prices spike for the second time in four years, as a place where the arguments for renewables, nuclear, transmission, and demand response are becoming even harder to ignore. Green hydrogen could also benefit, thanks to potential for replacing natural gas in fertilizer supply chains. 

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