Chicago Fed on Tariffs and Inflation

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) Addressing one of his biggest audiences at perhaps the lowest moment of his second term, President Trump returned again and again in his State of the Union speech to the same message on the economy: Everything is going great. A resolute Trump was determined to will Americans into a better economic mood, seeking to paint over the affordability concerns at the center of upcoming midterm elections with statistics and self-congratulation. “Inflation is plummeting. Incomes are rising fast. The roaring economy is roaring like never before,” Trump boasted early in the nearly two-hour speech. The US president didn’t even feel compelled to roll out fresh policy ideas to address the cost of living. And where he did allow that voters might have some misgivings about cost of living, he followed his well-worn playbook of pinning blame elsewhere. Ahead of the speech, Trump’s advisers had framed the evening as an opportunity to lay out a forward-looking economic agenda that could serve as a reset ahead of the midterms. But he focused more on touting his signature tax legislation and trade policies than major new cost-of-living proposals — a hint that the issue is still vexing the White House.
2) Four days after deriding the US Supreme Court justices who struck down most of his signature tariffs, President Trump was far milder in his criticism with some of them in the room. Delivering his State of the Union address Tuesday, Trump criticized Friday’s 6-3 ruling against his sweeping global tariffs as “very unfortunate” and “disappointing.” The four justices who attended — Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Elena Kagan, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — sat stoically in their front-row seats. Even in their relatively mild form, Trump’s comments marked a rare instance of high court criticism during a State of the Union address. In 2010, then-President Barack Obama criticized the just-issued Citizens United campaign-finance ruling, accusing the court of ignoring a century of precedent.
3) Nvidia Corp. is facing a high-stakes moment with its latest quarterly results on Wednesday, with the world waiting for fresh evidence that the AI spending boom remains on track. To satisfy investors, Nvidia likely needs to deliver another blockbuster report. That means easily topping the forecasts it gave three months ago and setting new targets that are above current Wall Street estimates. The company has done this repeatedly, but concerns have grown that the AI spending frenzy isn’t sustainable. Nvidia is the dominant supplier of processors used to develop and run AI models, making it the biggest bellwether of the artificial intelligence economy. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has assured investors in public appearances that demand remains high and customers such as Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. have rolled out more aggressive spending plans. Investors also will be looking for additional ways for Nvidia to accelerate growth. That may include pushing further into China, where US export curbs — and Chinese pushback — have limited sales.

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