Odds, predictions, and cross-primary linkage

We’re at war with Iran all of a sudden, and nobody can say why, even the people who started the war. After closing the loop on the Texas Senate primary, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What was Donald Trump thinking?

* What consequences (regional, domestic, and global) should we be prepared for?

* What do we make of the Democratic response so far?

Then, because the war has no support and was not justified, the public is overwhelmingly opposed to it. This should tend to fracture Republicans and unite Democrats. But it raises some questions: Will the progressives who couldn’t bring themselves to admit that Kamala Harris was the more anti-war of the two candidates in 2024 link arms with Democrats? Will the Trump supporters (GOP propagandists, marginal voters) who claimed to support Trump on anti-war grounds change their thinking? How much intra-GOP strife is driven by antisemitism? And what’s the best way to make sense of the mixed messages and buck passing already leaking out of the administration?

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Further reading:

* Matt on the failure of the anti-antisemitism movement.

* Brian argues Trump uses war abroad as an instrument of domestic politics, which he in turn views as civil war by other means.

* Our initial views on the state of the Talarico v. Crockett Senate primary.