2025 distribution yields and the denominator effect

Why has liquidity across private markets broken down and what does it mean for institutional portfolios? David Weisburd speaks with Alex Ambroz about collapsing distributions, the rise of continuation vehicles and secondaries, and why many allocators are facing a structural mismatch between models and reality. They explore whether “private is the new public,” how incentives shape GP behavior, and what LPs must change to adapt to a new normal of prolonged illiquidity.

Highlights:

• Why private market distribution yields have fallen from ~25% to single digits
• How declining DPI drives the denominator effect across portfolios
• Continuation vehicles: why LPs both rely on and resent them
• Secondary sales as a liquidity tool—and their political costs
• The growing gap between private marks and realizable value
• Why IPOs are no longer a reliable liquidity release valve
• How incentives keep large companies private far longer than before
• Why private credit remains the lone exception on distributions
• Career risk and principal–agent problems on the LP side
• Where AI tools help allocators—and where judgment still matters
• Using factor models to distinguish alpha from disguised beta

Guest Bio:

Alex Ambroz is the Founder and CEO of the Allocator Training Institute, the first structured education platform dedicated to developing the next generation of institutional allocators.

Before founding ATI, Alex spent two decades in senior investment roles at Morgan Creek Capital, J.P. Morgan, Cleveland Clinic, and Aberdeen Standard Investments, where he built and managed multi-asset portfolios across public and private markets.

He has trained hundreds of analysts and investment officers globally and holds deep expertise in portfolio construction, factor modeling, and operational due diligence.

Our Podcast now receives more than 300,000 downloads a month. Are you interested in sponsoring an episode? Please email David Weisburd at david@weisburdcapital.com.

We’d like to thank AlphaSense for sponsoring this episode!

Sponsor:

AlphaSense is the AI-powered market intelligence platform trusted by 85% of the S&P 100, helping investment professionals make faster, more confident, data-driven decisions. Built for hedge funds, asset allocators, private venture capital firms, and investment bankers, AlphaSense uses advanced AI and powerful search across premium proprietary content to surface the insights that matter most—before the market moves. Elevate your research and stay ahead of the competition. Visit https://www.alpha-sense.com/howiinvest/ to learn more.

Stay Connected with David Weisburd:

X/Twitter: @dweisburd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dweisburd/ Weisburd Capital: https://www.weisburdcapital.com/

Stay Connected with Alex Ambroz:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexambroz/

Questions or topics you want us to discuss on How I Invest? Email us at david@weisburdcapital.com.

Disclaimer:

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any investment strategy. All opinions expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not represent the views of Weisburd Capital. Participants may hold positions or have financial interests in the companies, funds, or investments discussed. Any references to specific investments are for illustrative purposes only. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and any forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Any third-party data or opinions have not been independently verified. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisors before making any investment decisions.

(0:00) Introduction (1:25) DPI, distribution yields, and their historical context (4:38) Impact of reduced distributions on allocators and DPI trends for 2025 (7:06) Illiquidity in private assets and GP strategies (9:50) Role and challenges of secondary sales and CVs (17:34) Borrowing against private book and liquidity concerns (21:27) Preparing for the new normal in private asset distributions (25:24) Private market valuations and LP pressure on GPs (29:33) Principal-agent problem and the impact of AI on investment analysis (33:12) Quick assessment of investment factors (34:49) Closing remarks