Why Recessions Look Different Today

In this incredible interview I spoke with legendary investor Bill Nygren, who has beaten the market over a 25 year period by around 200bps. This is an extremely hard and rare feat. In our wide-spanning conversation Bill tells us about everything from his investment process and valuation framework to how to value a cyclical business, the importance of management, investing lessons from Netflix & Meta, as well as what a lot of value investors get wrong. We even had time to talk about his Salesforce and Airbnb postions a bit. We hope you enjoy!

You can find a video version of this podcast on YouTube here

*~*~*~*~*

Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.

If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to info@speedwellresearch.com

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Show Notes

(0:51) — Bill Nygren's Investment Philosophy (4:15) — Valuation Timeframe (9:22) — Is There a Thing as Fair Value? (12:19) — Investing in Banks (17:30) — Why Haven't We Had a Normal Recession? (18:43) — How to Value a Cyclical Business? (23:24) — How Confident Can You Be on Your Downside? (24:36) — Does the Quality of Management Matter? (26:28) — How Important is ROIC? (28:34) — Should an Investor Buy & Hold Forever? (39:21) — The Role of Talking to Management in Your Investment Process (41:54) — Research Process (44:54) — How to Gain Confidence in Your Research (49:08) — Investing Lessons From Meta & Netflix (1:03:48) — Portfolio Analyst Relationship (1:06:38) — Portfolio Diversification (1:10:06) — Salesforce and the AI Risks (1:13:64) — What to Do About Deferred Revenue in Software Stocks (1:17:26) — Why Bill Owns Airbnb Over Booking Holdings

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!

Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here

AlphaSense has a repository of over 200k expert call transcripts that are similar to this conversation. Sign-up for access here.

*~*~*~*~*

Follow Us:

Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC

Threads: @speedwell_research

Email us at info@speedwellresearch.com for any questions, comments, or feedback.

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Disclaimer

Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in securities discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/