Oil Surge: Second-Order Liquidity Effects

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says this selloff is worse than Liberation Day because it's real economic dislocation — not just a market surprise — driven by the Iran war's devastating knock-on effects on energy, chemicals and global supply chains. He says the Fed should do nothing, because this inflation is caused by war not monetary policy and central banks can't fix a sulfur shortage. But he warns QE is coming anyway — "the question is not if, but when" — because Congress refuses to deal with the deficit and the Fed will eventually be forced to monetize the debt. He's been cutting market exposure, raising cash, and buying physical metals on the dip. On private credit he sees a slow-motion trainwreck with a Lehman moment still possible, and says Washington is going to make it worse by ignoring it.

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Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

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Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris

01:00 - The Fed should do nothing — you can't fight war inflation with rate hikes

2:39 - Why this inflation is fundamentally different from 2021

3:03 - Powell got it wrong on QE — and Trump totally mishandled the situation

4:12 - The rationale for doing nothing — the dual mandate is the problem

5:12 - Jobs report — 178,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%

8:02 - M2 is expanding — this economy keeps going regardless of policymakers

9:01 - Are we headed for a recession?

10:06 - The John Dizard interview — diesel is the real key to the global economy

12:54 - Even if the war ends tomorrow — damage will take months or years to fix

20:00 - Whalen has been cutting market exposure and raising cash

20:28 - Is this worse than Liberation Day? "I think it is — much more significant"

21:29 - Why gold and silver sold off — Gulf states raising cash

22:41 - What's behind the dollar rebound

23:28 - QE is coming — "not if, but when"

25:09 - Viewer Mail: Second and third order impacts of the oil surge on liquidity

26:47 - Viewer Mail: Can private credit break all at once?

28:16 - Viewer Mail: Should I lock my mortgage rate now?

29:05 - Viewer Mail: Rising long-term rates and Annaly — what am I missing?

30:31 - Viewer Mail: What can Treasury do to help private credit?

32:06 - Is it too late to do anything about private credit?

34:07 - What Whalen is watching next week — credit, Treasury market, mortgage rates