AI Agents in Forecasting and Logistics

Federico Marchesi, supply chain strategist and author of the Hacking Supply Chains newsletter, joins us to explore how disruptions, variability, and global constraints are not anomalies, but structural conditions that organisations must design their supply chains for. Drawing on his experience across global companies like Haier, Federico reflects on a key shift in how we should understand supply networks today: “In reality, we don’t operate a chain, but a complex adaptive system.”
In this conversation, we unpack why adaptability requires more than operational improvements: how modular product architectures can help, and how organisations can become capable of responding dynamically to uncertainty.
From Demand-Driven MRP to the growing role of AI agents in forecasting and logistics, the discussion highlights how supply chains increasingly rely on distributed intelligence and continuous adaptation.

For leaders, strategists, and organisational designers, Federico offers a valuable perspective on why supply chains can no longer be treated as a back-end function. Instead, they are becoming a central lever in building complex-aware, resilient organisations.
He speaks on the ideas of supply chain strategic design and why the deliberate structuring of flows, buffers, and decision points is important so that systems can always remain functional.
The conversation also explores the parallels between organisational design and supply chain design, and highlights how structuring companies into smaller entrepreneurial units with clear incentives and autonomy will make them: distributed, adaptive, and able to respond to uncertainty.
This conversation is for anyone interested in organisational design, strategy, and production systems.

Key Highlights
👉 Supply chains are often described as linear flows, but in reality, they function as complex adaptive systems shaped by feedback loops, multiple actors, and constant variability.
👉 Building resilient supply networks requires strategic supply chain design, not just efficient day-to-day operations.
👉 Modularity in product architecture allows companies to delay final configuration decisions, making it easier to adapt to changing customer demands and supply disruptions.
👉 Adaptive supply chains depend on adaptive organisations - teams must have autonomy and incentives to respond dynamically rather than follow rigid processes.
👉 AI is increasingly augmenting supply chain operations, from improving demand forecasting to automating transactional logistics tasks.
👉 As global disruptions increase, supply chains are shifting from a demand-driven world toward a more supply-constrained reality, where the key capability is delivering value despite constraints.
👉 Organizations must rethink the classic centralised vs. decentralized debate and instead focus on coordinated networks of decision-making.

Topics /chapters
(00:00) Supply Chains as Complex Systems and their Organisational Implications - INTRO
(01:02) Introducing Federico Marchesi
(03:30) Supply chains as complex systems
(05:11) Key Elements Affecting Suplpy Chain Compleixty
(09:55) Supply Chain Planning for Complexity
(15:13) Organizational Design and Adaptive Supply Chain Designs
(26:14) How do you visualize modularity and adaptive systems?
(29:50) What can organizations learn from supply chains?
(36:07) Preparing for the future of Supply Chains
(42:03) Breadcrumbs and Suggestions

Remember that you can always find transcripts and key highlights of the episode on our website: https://www.boundaryless.io/podcast/Marchesi-Federico

Episode recorded on Mar 03, 26

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Music

Music from Liosound / Walter Mobilio. Find his portfolio here: https://blss.io/Podcast-Music