Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Wealth Management unveils his convictions for December 2025
1. Government stimulus to support growth: the US should focus on tax cuts and deregulation efforts ahead of the November 2026 mid-term elections. Europe will spend on infrastructure and defence, while China and Japan will also add targeted measures to support domestic consumption and the property market.
2. Moderating inflation to allow lower US rates: steady US inflation and low/falling inflation in Europe and Asia should allow for lower interest rates in the US and emerging markets. Long-term yields should remain around current levels, with IG credit potentially benefiting from tighter credit spreads. Favour Euro IG credit including financials, EM sovereign bonds in local currency
3. Ongoing bull market in stocks. Ample liquidity, lower rates, earnings growth, deregulation and buoyant buybacks support global stock markets. Prefer World ex-US (Japan, emerging markets), health care, Euro banks and mining sectors.
4. Precious and strategic metals: long-term positive on precious metals given expected weaker US dollar, lower rates and persistent geopolitical volatility. Copper to benefit from strong global AI/electrification demand with supply limited. Favour exposure to physical copper, global mining stocks.
5. Six investment themes for 2026: i) Ride the bull but guard the gains; ii) Escape shrinking cash returns; iii) Beyond algorithms, the new AI frontiers; iv) Welcome to the new age of scarcity; v) Investing when policy rules markets; vi) Opportunity Rising: the allure of Asia.
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