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Ep. 5: Nick Radge Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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The Probability of Profit

We want to find out at what point we hit the 100% mark now with my longer term training following strategy here in Australia, that comes in at 22 months. At six months, I can tell you we've got a 60% probability of profit. At 12 months, I think it goes up to about 83%, but at 22 months, it hits 100%. It doesn't matter whether you start on January the 1st, December the 13th. What matters is you give it 22 months. If you can't give it22 months, then you have a risk, however large, of actually coming out behind. How many people, how many people either trading for them or their accline

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