On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data.
The two discuss:
- What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026
- How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are faring
- Whether the export machine can possibly go from strength to strength in 2026
Then Andrew is joined by pod regulars Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to examine the enduring headwinds to capital expenditure in China.
They get into:
- Whether the cratering in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth in H2 2025 was a one-off or is the new normal (spoiler alert: it’s probably the latter)
- Prospects for investment in a couple of key industries – autos and renewable energy
- How government policy might address the investment slide
- And where infrastructure spending fits in – particularly energy infrastructure, as it relates to the recently released massive spending plan from State Grid
It’s another wonk-fest, so lap it up you China nerds.
