Sector seasonality and recent volatility

Robert Sinn, (aka Goldfinger on CEO.ca and CeoTechnican on X) and publisher of Goldfinger Capital on YouTube and Substack, joins us for another wide-ranging discussion on the shifting sector sentiment, the technical outlook on gold, silver, copper, the fundamental valuations in producers and developers, thoughts on recent merger and acquisition deals, and the value propositions in 3 exploration stocks.

We start off unpacking the seasonality of the metals and mining stock prices from tax loss selling season, into the year-end Santa Claus rally, the blistering Q1 run higher in January, the post-VRIC correction and peak in investor sentiment late in that month, the February chop, and the PDAC curse and further corrective moves down in March.

Robert fields a few of our questions on how he is viewing the changes in valuations to the gold and silver stocks from last year into this year, and even from January peaks to recent corrective moves. 

• We opine what aspects are important with regards to contrast in PM producers margin expansion versus their more recent share price corrections
• Robert highlights a few P/NAV considerations for producers and developers, that have changed over the last year
• The discussion then shifts to why we aren’t witnessing a bigger string of M&A transactions and why the valuations aren’t higher?
• The conversation on gold stocks ranges from valuations in large producers like Newmont and Agnico Eagle down to quality developers like Banyan Gold (TSXV:BYN)(OTCQB:BYAGF) and best-in-class advanced explorers like Snowline Gold Corp. (TSX:SGD)(OTCQB:SNWGF).
• We also dissect the nuance around ounce-in-the-ground valuations, and the other criteria that can affect market perceptions, using the Fresnillo takeover of Probe Gold Inc. (TSX: PRB) (OTCQB: PROBF) as a case study.

Next we dive into the copper market, and how this is where we are actually seeing more merger and acquisition deals.

• Robert highlights the recent takeover of Arizona Sonoran Copper Company Inc. (TSX: ASCU; OTCQX: ASCUF) Cactus Project at all-time highs by Hudbay Minerals Inc. (TSX, NYSE: HBM) as the more ideal type of acquisition that we’d like to see more of in this space.
• We also note the Eldorado Gold acquisition of Foran Mining, and the Faraday Copper acquisition of BHP’s San Manuel Project as 2 other recent copper M&A deals.
• He also highlights the lack of quality tier-1 gold and silver development projects, and that this may be why more of the senior gold producers are focused on getting strategic positions into copper assets.

With regards to the explorers, Robert is focused on exciting mineral belts that may host a string of new discoveries in US states like Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona or Canadian provinces like British Columbia or the Yukon.

• Robert highlights 3 explorers with compelling news catalysts on tap that have his attention this year in Kingfisher Metals Corp. (TSXV:KFR) OTCQB:KGFMF), StrikePoint Gold Inc. (TSXV: SKP) (OTCQB: STKXF), and Hercules Metals Corp. (TSXV: BIG) (OTCQB: BADEF)

Wrapping up, Robert provides some best practices regarding navigating the trading volatility, when raise cash in one’s portfolio, when to considering trimming or selling, and how to rotate funds based on fundamental or technical factors.

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Investment disclaimer:

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.