Rory Johnston, the “oil quant,” joins us to explain why the Hormuz crisis could become the biggest oil shock in history.
Oil markets are already screaming. Supply is trapped, inventories are being drained, and the market may still be underpricing the scale of the disruption.
If the Strait stays closed, Rory says the path to $200 oil is no longer crazy. It may be the next stop.
This is oil, geopolitics, inflation, and markets all colliding at once.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:17 What is a Barrel of Oil?
7:04 How is Oil Transported?
8:24 Is Oil Fungible?
13:25 Oil Then Vs Now
17:10 Peak Oil?
24:59 Hydrocarbon World Distribution
29:32 What is Spare Capacity?
32:14 Inventories in the Buffer System
35:04 Oil Futures
38:59 Oil Curve
44:51 Economic Implications of Oil Markets
48:48 Straight of Hormuz
55:30 Future Oil Price Action
1:03:53 Steelmanning the Market Reaction
1:13:23 When will the Straight Open?
1:21:57 Is the USA Winning?
1:27:49 Pressuring Iran
1:31:48 Signals to Watch
1:33:36 Fast Forward to 2050
1:38:38 Closing & Disclaimers
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RESOURCES
Rory Johnston
https://x.com/Rory_Johnston
Commodity Context
https://www.commoditycontext.com/
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