Turning Vulnerability into Leverage

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be.

Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Housekeeping

(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter

(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes

(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check

(05:16) - Fungible Oil and Discount Myth

(11:02) - US Economy Needs Low Oil

(18:17) - China Reserves and EV Strategy

(22:46) - SPR Politics and Election Risk

(25:57) - China Energy Stats and Seaborne Risk

(31:26) - Trade Dependence and Supply Chains

(34:06) - Five D Chess and US as Supplier

(40:16) - Industrial Policy and Borg Metaphor

(45:36) - Tariffs Versus Competition

(47:41) - China EVs Copying Tesla

(49:57) - Education And Immigration Edge

(50:48) - Oil Sanctions Are Futile

(52:23) - UAE Dollar Swap Line

(54:52) - Japan China Tensions Rising

(59:31) - DC Trip Policy Chaos

(01:04:51) - Trump Court Politics

(01:09:44) - Military Adults Missing

(01:16:45) - Memes And Trade Value Tease

(01:20:04) - Closing Banter And Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro