What 'Falling' Would Look Like

Like many of you, we have been following the recent developments in Cuba very closely. We were fortunate to sit down with Sebastián Arcos, Interim Director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, for a Special Edition COBT to discuss what is happening on the island and what it may mean going forward. Sebastián brings both deep personal experience and substantive expertise to the conversation. Born in Havana, he joined the Cuban Committee for Human Rights in 1987, left Cuba for the United States in 1992, and later served as part of the Freedom House delegation to the U.N. Human Rights Commission. He also advised the U.S. Department of State on human rights issues related to Cuba from 1998 to 2000 and earned both his Bachelor’s Degree in International Relations and Master’s Degree in Public Administration from FIU. We were thrilled to host Sebastián for such a timely and important discussion.
 
In our conversation, Sebastián outlines the long economic decline that has brought Cuba to its current position, including the collapse of Soviet support, the island’s dependence on imported oil, and the central role Venezuela has played in sustaining the regime. We explore Cuba’s worsening demographic crisis, the mass exodus of recent years, and the ways in which energy shortages, blackouts, and economic deterioration are now colliding with a deeply centralized political system still shaped by Raúl Castro, the military, and the opaque power structure behind the civilian government. Sebastián walks us through how he thinks about a possible Cuban transition, arguing that real change would require political reform before economic reform, a credible transitional figure, and a negotiated process that includes both the opposition inside Cuba and the exile community outside it. We discuss the role of the U.S. and the pressure campaign now bearing down on Havana, the importance of Marco Rubio and Mexico as external variables, the unresolved question of property rights, and the sectors that could attract investment in a post-transition Cuba, from tourism and minerals to manufacturing and services. Along the way, Sebastián draws striking parallels between Cuba and Iran, highlights the unique links between Cuba and Venezuela, and offers a clear-eyed view of what it would take for Cuba to move from totalitarian rule toward a democratic future. We greatly appreciate Sebastián for sharing his candid insights into a complex situation.
 
Mike Bradley started the show with a few details on Cuba’s electricity generation and energy production. He noted that Cuba has 6-7gw of electricity generation (~95% oil/fossil fuel). Cuba’s oil production is ~30kbpd (~65kbpd at its peak in 2003), its oil consumption is ~120kbpd, and 80-90kbpd of its oil imports were primarily supplied by Mexico and Venezuela prior to the de facto U.S. oil embargo started around January 2026. Veriten Senior Contributor Gabe Collins peppered in his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.
 
We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all!