Ceasefire Hold and Military Restraint

Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts

(00:56) - Hero Principal Story

(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter

(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals

(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets

(12:30) - Nuclear Material Dilemma

(15:09) - Deescalation and Market Complacency

(22:28) - Is the Deal Superficial

(28:31) - Will Iran Change Behavior

(37:25) - Is Iran Really the Villain

(41:45) - Iran vs Saudi Hypocrisy Debate

(44:18) - Trump Is The Swamp

(44:43) - Pump The Brakes On Iran

(46:50) - Exit Middle East Vision

(48:32) - Terrorism And Threat Math

(50:23) - Opportunity Cost At Home

(52:05) - Petrodollar Explained

(55:51) - Inertia And Diversification

(58:04) - Reputation Versus Savings

(58:45) - Football Trade Metaphors

(01:02:20) - Falcons Pain And Fandom

(01:04:09) - Listener Coffee Shoutout

(01:06:27) - Orban Era Ends

(01:08:13) - Europe Rightward Shift

(01:10:51) - Millennial Politics Rising

(01:14:37) - TMZ Comes To DC

(01:19:45) - Democracy Versus Elites

(01:22:11) - Making Geopolitics Fun

(01:25:39) - Sponsors And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro