Anthropic Could Challenge Bitcoin's Value

Alex Wilhelm raises a Polymarket bet on Anthropic versus Bitcoin, leading to a discussion of AI valuations and what would need to change.

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This Week In Startups is made possible by:

Pilot - https://pilot.com/twist

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Grasshopper Bank - https://grasshopper.bank/twist

Today’s show:

An AI agent named Valerie is running a real vending machine in San Francisco — setting prices, ordering inventory, managing a bank account, and posting to Instagram. And it's not just a stunt. We’re getting an early look at the future of one-agent companies. There’s still work to do to help agents ease into the economy, potentially opening up new startup opportunities.

Jason Calacanis and Alex Wilhelm cover a stacked docket: Christian van der Henst demos the Valerie AI vending machine powered by OpenClaw; Robert Myers, CEO of Manifold Labs, breaks down Targon, a confidential GPU compute marketplace running on Bittensor Subnet 4; Jason calls Bitcoin "played out;" Alex is impressed by Anthropic's stunning $900 billion upcoming valuation; and the guys discuss Big Tech's accelerating CapEx spend, Chinese AI models in Congress crosshairs, and the NBA Playoffs.

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro & sponsor reads (Pilot, Shopify, Grasshopper Bank)

1:06 Christian van der Henst: Valerie the AI vending machine demo

4:28 Legal structure: Giving an AI agent business ownership via trust

7:23 Where agents can and can't operate today

10:10 Grasshopper Bank: Time is money. Don't waste either. Go to https://grasshopper.bank/twist and get an exclusive $500 cash bonus just for opening an account.

11:48 AI café in Stockholm running on agents

18:21 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!

19:05 Robert Myers, Manifold Labs: Targon & Bittensor Subnet 4 interview

20:21 What is Bittensor? An "incubator with 128 subnets"

21:08 Shopify: Turn those What If's into sales with the ecommerce platform powering millions of businesses. Sign up for your $1-per-month trial today at https://shopify.com/twist

25:21 Pricing, utilization caps, and why GPUs are sold out

26:38 Who's using Targon? Customers, use cases, and the mom-and-pop data center argument

30:06 Pilot: Focus on your product, let Pilot handle your bookkeeping. Pilot provides the most reliable accounting, CFO, and tax services for startups and small businesses. Head to https://pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.

35:07 Jason explains the annotated.com vision — 15 years in the making

39:11 Polymarket: Will Anthropic flip Bitcoin by Dec 31?

40:29 Jason's Bitcoin bear case: "It's played out. No incremental buyers."

46:05 MicroStrategy / Strategy updates

52:37 AI compute demand vs. the fiber overbuild analogy

55:55 Congress pressuring startups over Chinese AI models (DeepSeek, Moonshot)

57:11 A16z on the geopolitical risk of Chinese AI models

1:00:08 Reflection AI — America's open source AI champion (or lack thereof)

1:01:26 Off Duty: Knicks blow out Atlanta Hawks 140–89, Jason goes road-tripping

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