Scenario Ranges and Psychological Safety

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Intercom CFO Dan Griggs to discuss pricing and forecasting in the AI era. Dan shares the “it’s not zero” rule, the logic behind Fin’s $0.99 pricing, and how to bet on AI without blowing up the core business.

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SPONSORS:

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Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run

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LINKS: 

Dan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-griggs-0970181/

Intercom: https://www.intercom.com/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Cold Open

00:01:03 Dan Griggs and Intercom’s AI Pivot

00:02:45 Ice Cream to SaaS

00:04:19 Learning the Business

00:06:26 Operational Reality and Forecasts

00:08:00 “It’s Not Zero” Forecasting

00:10:09 Scenario Planning and Ambiguity

00:11:23 Sponsors — Brex | Metronome | RightRev

00:14:43 Mental Models for Metrics

00:16:15 Mental Math for Forecasts

00:17:28 Core CFO Ratios

00:19:13 Intercom’s Burn-the-Boats Moment

00:20:53 AI as an Existential Bet

00:22:21 SaaS Categories AI Can Replace

00:23:04 Why Finance Lags on AI

00:23:39 Sponsors — Rillet | Tabs | Abacum

00:27:05 Why Fin Uses Outcome Pricing

00:28:59 The $0.99 Resolution Tradeoff

00:30:46 Why Support Work Varies

00:32:01 AI Resolution Unit Economics

00:33:08 Model Choice as Costs Fall

00:35:19 Domain-Specific vs Generic LLMs

00:36:08 Selling Against the Core

00:38:50 Founder vs Professional CEOs

00:41:47 Hiring Mistakes and Instincts

00:44:28 Intercom’s Finance Stack

00:45:49 Craziest Expense Request