Weak Treasury Auctions and Mortgage Pain

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says stagflation is now the base case — the Iran war has already cost American investors trillions in reduced investment value, Treasury auctions are weak, and mortgage rates are heading toward 7% if the 10-year hits 5%. Despite all of this, he still calls for a Fed cut in April, arguing the inflation is caused by war not monetary policy, and the Fed's real mandate is employment. He says we're heading toward a medium to long-term reset in risk premia, equities are out and debt is in, and that a recession by 2028 — "misery on the eights" — is becoming a near certainty. He's adding to gold and silver on the dip and if Annaly goes down he's buying more.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris

0:47 - The Iran war and long-term damage to the global economy

2:18 - Are we headed toward more inflation?

2:41 - The term structure of interest rates is blowing out — here's why

4:02 - Making the case for a Fed cut despite $100 oil

4:26 - Stagflation is ahead

5:30 - The Fed's real mandate is employment — that's what forces the cut

6:40 - Whalen calls for a rate cut in April

7:51 - What difference would a cut actually make?

8:19 - Bonds are behaving like equities

9:08 - The $5.12 trillion cost of the Iran war to American investors

11:11 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now

13:03 - Why the market has stayed resilient despite all the headlines

13:53 - Private credit - Is Apollo facing a Lehman moment?

18:53 - Weak Treasury auctions — what that means for mortgage rates

20:06 - People don't want to understand what the war is doing to the economy

21:03 - This year is the opposite of last year — no easy trades

21:58 - Bob Elliott's world where long rates are closer to 4% than 2% — is that the new normal?

23:11 - If the 10-year hits 5% has the bond market lost trust in the Fed?

24:16 - Gold at $4,500 today — volatile but Whalen is staying long

25:26 - Viewer question: crypto-backed mortgages with Fannie and Freddie?

27:20 - Is recession now a near certainty?

28:07 - Viewer Mail: What are the downside risks to Annaly?

30:00 - Viewer Mail: Should you invest in Canadian banks?

31:49 - What Whalen is watching next week