Limits of regime change without boots

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists. 

He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown.

Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district

01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi

07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency

08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets

09:30 We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday

10:30 Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants

12:00 Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years

13:00 Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements

13:30 Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days

14:30 Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States

15:15 Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain

16:00 Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real

16:45 Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists

17:30 Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel

18:30 When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired

19:45 ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public

20:30 Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown

21:00 If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won’t be Venezuela 2.0

22:15 We’ve always paid to rebuild countries we’ve bombed

23:00 If the regime survives, that’s victory for Iran

24:15 Can’t change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won’t do

25:15 There’s no opposition on the ground to coordinate with

26:00 Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn’t assisting Iran w/targeting

26:45 U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia

28:00 DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster

28:45 Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut

29:15 Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win

30:45 Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations

31:30 New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran

32:15 Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war

33:00 MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trump

37:45 Take action on April 9th to support local news

38:15 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Mississippi statewide campaigns

42:45 #1 1959 gubernatorial

44:45 #2 1978 senate race

46:15 #3 1978 gubernatorial

47:45 #4 1999 gubernatorial

49:45 #5 2014 senate Republican primary

52:15 Honorable mentions

55:15 Ask Chuck

55:30 Do you have a Top 5 list coming for New Jersey?

58:45 How do we keep getting into wars without declaration from congress?

1:02:15 What will it take for the U.S. to rebuild trust on the world stage?

1:05:45 Will abortion become an issue in 2028 or has Dobbs taken it off the table?

1:09:15 Should Democrats break norms to prevent authoritarianism?

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