AI's Credit Risks and Winners

What if the best way to navigate credit markets is not about chasing yield but controlling risk? In this episode, I sit down with Danielle Poli, Co-Portfolio Manager of Global Credit at Oaktree, to explore how she manages a $20 billion portfolio within a $223 billion firm. Danielle shares how focusing on core income, rigorous underwriting, and a flexible toolkit allows her team to navigate complex markets while remaining defensive or opportunistic as conditions change.

Highlights:

• Why a “core plus alpha” strategy balances steady income with opportunistic credit
• How to underwrite borrowers through leverage, cash flow, and sector fundamentals
• Why AI disruption is creating caution in software but opportunity in cybersecurity
• The framework for finding mispriced assets in distressed or overlooked sectors
• How the K-shaped economy is shaping credit allocation and risk management
• Why flexibility across bonds, loans, and structured credit is critical in credit portfolios
• Why private credit must deliver excess yield to justify illiquidity
• Danielle’s career advice: compound relationships and trust alongside investment returns

Guest Bio:

Danielle Poli is Co-Portfolio Manager of Global Credit at Oaktree Capital Management, a $223 billion investment firm, where she helps oversee a $20 billion portfolio focused on income, total return, and high-conviction sub-investment-grade opportunities across bonds, loans, structured credit, and emerging markets. She played a key role in launching the firm’s Global Credit strategy in 2017 and emphasizes bottom-up research, risk control, and flexible allocation to generate consistent returns across market cycles.

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We’d like to thank AlphaSense for sponsoring this episode!

Sponsor:

AlphaSense is the AI-powered market intelligence platform trusted by 85% of the S&P 100, helping investment professionals make faster, more confident, data-driven decisions. Built for hedge funds, asset allocators, private venture capital firms, and investment bankers, AlphaSense uses advanced AI and powerful search across premium proprietary content to surface the insights that matter most—before the market moves. Elevate your research and stay ahead of the competition. Visit https://www.alpha-sense.com/howiinvest/ to learn more.

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Stay Connected with Danielle Poli:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniellepoli/

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Disclaimer:

This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as an offer to buy or sell any securities or to participate in any investment strategy. All opinions expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not represent the views of Weisburd Capital. Participants may hold positions or have financial interests in the companies, funds, or investments discussed. Any references to specific investments are for illustrative purposes only. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and any forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Any third-party data or opinions have not been independently verified. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisors before making any investment decisions.

(0:00) Inside Oaktree’s $20B Global Credit Strategy (1:16) How Top Investors Allocate Across Credit Markets (2:29) Core vs Alpha: The Portfolio Construction Framework (3:17) Why Lending Standards Are Getting Risky Again (4:27) How AI Is Changing Credit Risk Overnight (6:19) Finding Opportunities in “Unloved” Sectors (6:59) What a K-Shaped Economy Means for Investors (9:36) When to Go Defensive vs Aggressive in Credit (11:51) Private vs Public Credit: Where to Allocate Today (17:23) Why Avoiding Losses Matters More Than Big Wins