Ep. 514: Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Probability of Saddam's WMD in Iraq
I think the Iraq WMD case is a very important one because I don't think the research project the tournaments even would have happened had the intelligence community not made some massive an error on WMD. It's really hard to know what the true probability would a perfect information processor have assigned to Saddam having weapons of mass destruction in Iraq before the invasion. The politics took over that instead of coming out with the probabilistic estimate they came out with the slam dunk, he says.
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