Macro theses: AI, sticky inflation, and rates

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast by Coolabah Capital, a hosted by Christopher Joye, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi, a Senior Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.

Chris and Ying Yi challenge the Reserve Bank of Australia’s claim that policy is “close to balance,” arguing the data instead point to a persistent inflation problem driven by excessive fiscal spending, ultra-low unemployment, and years of overly easy monetary policy. They explain why the RBA may ultimately need to lift rates well above market expectations, why global inflation risks remain underpriced, and how AI capex, energy shocks, and Trump’s economic strategy could reinforce a higher-for-longer rate environment. The discussion concludes with the investment implications: avoid default risk, prioritise liquidity, and recognise why cash and high-quality bonds may now be among the most attractive assets available.

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