Ep. 740: A New Mega Collection with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Lessons Learned From the Iraq WMD Case
Both sides of the fence, except for people like perhaps Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, believe that those WMDs were there. It's really hard to know what the true probability would a perfect information process of having Saddam having weapons of mass destruction interact before the invasion. I think part of the problem was that this was happening in the aftermath of 9-11 and nobody wanted to make a false negative mistake. Within two years of having failed to warn adequately against the risk of al-Qaeda's attacks on 9-11, two big false negative errors right in a row would be very damaging.
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