U.S.–China Deal Prospects and Choke Point Leverage

Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - After Dark

(00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter

(03:01) - From Sports to Iran

(03:36) - Oil Shock Signals

(05:46) - Ceasefire and Storage

(10:06) - Demand Destruction Debate

(13:48) - Trump Narrative and Blame

(18:04) - Cold War Framing

(19:27) - China Pressure and Pakistan

(33:11) - UAE Leaves OPEC

(36:30) - Cartels and Oil Math

(40:00) - Saudi Price Warfare

(41:06) - OPEC Share Debate

(41:53) - UAE Saudi Rift Risks

(42:49) - Why OPEC Can Undercut

(46:12) - Putin Polls Warning

(48:56) - Russia Pivot Playbook

(55:06) - KD Leadership Analogy

(01:01:06) - Panama Canal Signaling

(01:07:12) - Canada Wealth Fund Plan

(01:15:00) - Wrap Up and Playoffs

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro