Planning fallacy distorts project timelines

Brené Brown and Adam Grant discuss chronic underestimation, impatience, and why repeated time prediction errors persist in work and home life.

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Episode notes

What happens when your confidence outruns your competence? Brené and Adam start with freestyle skiing champ Eileen Gu’s extraordinary Olympic press conference and use it to explore metacognition—how to notice your thinking, question it, and change it on purpose. They dig into the Dunning–Kruger effect, calibration, journaling, and feedback, discuss why we’re so bad at estimating timelines, and consider how “I’ve got this” energy can quietly wreck projects, relationships, and learning. From pickleball and ping pong to therapy and team meetings, this episode is about building the inner game of better thinking without losing your nerve along the way.

You can find the Curiosity Shop on YouTube⁠ and Instagram⁠ (@thecuriosityshop).

Chapters:

0:00 - Introductions

3:45 - Eileen Gu’s Metacognition

12:22 - What is Metacognition?

25:10 - What is Dunning-Kruger?

38:14 - Time Estimation and The Planning Fallacy

44:36 - Metacognition and Dunning-Kruger Final Thoughts

58:17 - Wrap up

Shownotes:

I hate minimalism - Hank Green, TikTok

Strong Ground: The Lessons of Daring Leadership, the Tenacity of Paradox, and the Wisdom of the Human Spirit - Brené Brown, 2025, Book