The Optimism Bias in the Ukraine Counter-Offense

I was conscious last weekend as I watched the events unfold that a little bit of optimism bias was creeping into the analysis, perhaps particularly here. Now that we've had a few days, and there is a more sober assessment of what might happen to Putin, he may well double down to try and prove that he's still in power. He's done some more indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine, which again, the terror weapons against civilian areas,. It's almost his version of station identification. The forces still remain in very heavily dug in defensive positions. So my own guess again is Ukraine may pick up a little bit here, but collapse, which is what a lot of people are expecting.