Risk of NATO Collapse and Russian Tests

Ambassador Robert Blackwill — a towering figure in American foreign policy who served under Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush, and is the only person to have served as both U.S. Ambassador to India and Deputy National Security Advisor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping and sobering conversation about America's position in the world. Blackwill, currently the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, argues that the U.S. urgently needs to recapture the kind of bipartisan foreign policy consensus that defined the Cold War era. He calls China the most dangerous rival America has ever faced, warning that Beijing is actively preparing its military for a potential Taiwan invasion — a threat that has only intensified amid China's massive late-2025 military exercises around the island and growing questions about whether the Trump administration would intervene to defend Taipei.

The conversation spans the full scope of the global chessboard, from NATO's potential collapse — an especially timely concern as the Pentagon has moved to scale back U.S. participation in NATO advisory groups and Defense Secretary Hegseth skipped the latest defense ministers' meeting in Brussels — to why any Ukraine peace deal will inevitably reward Russian aggression, to Trump's puzzling warmth toward adversaries like China and Russia while publicly disparaging European allies. Blackwill warns that Trump is driving swing countries like India into China's orbit, and that the U.S. isn't headed for a multipolar world but a bipolar one, with China gaining ground across Africa, South America, and Asia. With the 2028 presidential race on the horizon, Blackwill makes a forceful case that the next generation of candidates must present a clear, durable vision for America's role in the world — before it's too late.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ambassador Robert Blackwill joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 America needs to recapture its cold war “bipartisan consensus”

02:30 Alliances contributed to American strength

04:00 Why were assumptions of China joining the world wrong?

06:00 China is the most dangerous rival America has ever had

07:15 Should we have developed an Asian security pact sooner?

09:00 Marxism tells China that for it to be safe, it must lead the world

10:30 Liberal internationalism has gotten weaker in its expression

11:30 What should we make of Xi purging his military leadership?

12:45 U.S. intelligence penetration of China has been limited

14:30 China is working very hard to prepare military for Taiwan invasion

15:45 Worse outcome: Let China invade Taiwan or fight them over it?

16:45 Biden clearly said he’d intervene on behalf of Taiwan

17:30 Trump doesn’t seem inclined to defend Taiwan

18:30 China’s military isn’t battle tested, invasion is a huge risk

19:30 How have Iraq/Afghanistan informed the debate over defending Taiwan?

20:45 A majority of Americans wouldn’t support war with China over Taiwan

22:15 What would you advise next President to do with Taiwan if no war by 2028?

23:00 Trump is unique, will take most of “Trumpism” with him when he leaves

24:30 Debate after Trump will be between nationalism & liberal internationalism

26:00 Tough to know what Democrats strategy for role in the world is

27:00 How do you rebuild alliances in a more durable way?

29:30 The American people don’t support the admins “gangster” foreign policy

31:15 If Europe is separated from the U.S., they’ll truly go on their own

31:45 Trump says nothing positive about Europe, but praises China & Russia

34:00 Hard to believe Donald Trump would abide Article 5

34:45 NATO could collapse if Trump doesn’t respond to action against Baltics

35:30 Taiwan remains greatest risk for the duration of Trump’s term

36:30 Any peace deal in Ukraine will reward Russia’s aggression

37:15 Ukraine remains determined not to lose their statehood

38:00 Putin knows he’ll never have a friendlier American president than Trump

39:00 Intelligence sharing is most valuable thing America provides Ukraine

41:00 Trump can do so much more to rupture our alliances in 3 years

42:00 Europe is more traumatized by what Trump says than what he does

43:00 What to make of Marco Rubio’s role in the administration?

45:00 Rubio has to perform an incredible balancing act

47:00 Trump is driving “swing countries” like India into China’s arms

47:30 We aren’t headed for a multipolar world, it will be bipolar

48:30 Partners want consistency from America, based on strength

51:00 2028 candidates need to present a vision for America’s role

52:30 China ahead of America in Africa, South America & Asia…not Europe

53:00 China isn’t ahead yet, but trends are bad

54:30 America’s contempt for the third world has been detrimental 

56:15 Trump’s approach to the world won’t change in the next 3 years

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