Military Buildup Signals and Diplomatic Context

*Disclaimer* This episode contains strong language

Chuck Todd tackles three fast-moving stories shaping the political landscape. First, he digs into the escalating Iran crisis, where the Trump administration has deployed two aircraft carriers, hundreds of fighter jets, and a dozen warships to the Middle East — what Todd calls military adventurism without the consent of Congress. With nuclear talks in Geneva producing no breakthrough and Trump advisers saying there's a 90% chance of kinetic action in the coming weeks, Todd warns that history says hot intervention is coming and that the U.S. may have gone too far to back down, while cautioning that any regime change scenario means America would own the outcome — a lesson the country should have learned from its disastrous track record in Iran. From there, he turns to the Texas Senate race, which he calls an all-timer, breaking down the volatile primaries on both sides: Ken Paxton leading despite millions spent by the GOP establishment to take him down, the tight Crockett-Talarico Democratic primary, and the explosive Colbert-CBS controversy — in which CBS lawyers blocked Colbert from airing a Talarico interview over FCC "equal time" threats, only for the resulting firestorm to generate millions more views on YouTube than it ever would have gotten on broadcast, making Jasmine Crockett the quiet loser in the saga. Todd closes with a sharp critique of crypto's financial coercion of the Democratic Party — pointing to Chuck Schumer reportedly urging Senate Democrats to get on crypto's side after the industry spent heavily to defeat Sherrod Brown — and a Potomac sewage dump that underscores how even basic governance has become hostage to political blame games.

Then, George Conway — the conservative lawyer turned leading Trump critic, Lincoln Project co-founder, and now Democratic congressional candidate in New York — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an urgent, no-holds-barred conversation about what he sees as an existential crisis for American constitutional government. Conway, who became a Republican in the 1980s as a "legal conservative" grounded in the Constitution, argues that the party he once joined is now unrecognizable, and that young people have been led to believe conservatism and Trumpism are the same thing. He makes an impassioned case that a third impeachment of Trump isn't just politically justified but a constitutional imperative, warning that Trump is psychologically deteriorating while controlling the military and nuclear arsenal, creating a domestic army through ICE, and presiding over what Conway calls the most corrupt government in America's 250-year history. He points to Mitch McConnell's failure to vote for conviction during the second impeachment trial as the hinge point that could have changed everything — and argues that if impeachment doesn't apply to what Trump has done, the mechanism has no meaning.

The conversation goes beyond Trump himself into deeper structural questions about how to repair American democracy. Conway endorses the bipartisan constitutional amendment circulating in the House to nullify presidential pardons — citing Trump intermediaries allegedly being paid for sold pardons — but argues that statutory fixes will be more achievable than amendments, and that Congress needs to codify the old "norms" into enforceable law. He argues that that Democrats should fight fire with fire,  with Chuck warning it only feeds whataboutism, and makes the case for incrementalism and welcoming converts rather than saying "I told you so" — pointing to figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene as case studies in evolving away from Trump. Throughout, Conway returns to a central theme: that no positive policy agenda is possible until the current constitutional crisis is resolved, and that America simply cannot survive three more years of a government working to serve one man.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 GUEST TEASE

03:30 Are we about to go to war with Iran?

04:30 This is military adventurism without consent of congress

05:30 We’ve moved a massive amount of military assets to Middle East

06:45 It’s possible this is all posturing for negotiations

09:00 Does Trump have room to back down, or will it only escalate?

10:00 Will Trump want part of Iran’s oil business in order to back down?

10:30 History says hot military intervention is coming, best not miss

11:30 If we get involved in regime change then we own it

12:30 It feels like we’ve gone too far to back down

14:15 American interventions in Iran have gone terribly in the past

15:00 A democratic Iran would be amazing, but dictating outcomes is hard

15:30 The Texas senate race is becoming an all-timer

17:00 Polls have shown Crockett ahead of Talarico, 

17:30 Establishment GOP feels Paxton is unelectable

18:15 Millions have been spent by GOP to beat Paxton, he’s still leading

19:45 Paxton’s numbers have gotten worse in general, not benefiting Cornyn

20:30 Both Talarico & Crockett lead Paxton in recent polls

21:00 Democrats are getting help from GOP softening up their nominee

23:00 What’s the path for Coryn to get to 50% + 1?

24:30 Colbert interview with Talarico yanked by CBS due to FCC threats

25:00 The controversy generated millions more views than it would have

26:30 What the “equal time rule” actually states

27:30 Don’t know if either side, Colbert or CBS is giving the full story

28:30 Jasmine Crockett is the loser here

30:30 The unanswered questions from the Colbert controversy persist

33:00 This controversy has been a massive boon for Talarico

34:45 Chuck Schumer begging senate Dems to get to crypto’s side

35:30 This goes beyond lobbying, this is financial coercion

36:15 Crypto used their money to defeat & make example of Sherrod Brown

38:00 Big money is threatening dissent in politics

40:00 Schumer is saying when opponent has enough money, you must appease

40:45 Trump only wants to point fingers over sewage dump in Potomac

42:00 We can’t deal with disaster only based on politics

43:00 Can we stop the blame game and just fix the problem?

44:00 Lack of local coverage from WaPo has been a glaring issue

53:15 George Conway joins the Chuck ToddCast  

54:45 The Republican party is unrecognizable today  

55:45 Why George became a Republican in the 80’s  

57:15 George was a “legal” conservative based on the Constitution  

58:15 Nixon did some not so conservative things because they were popular  

59:45 Young people think conservatism & Trumpism are the same thing  

1:00:30 The Democratic party is trying to fit a broad coalition under one tent  

1:01:15 We can’t have serious policy debates until the current crisis is over  

1:02:45 Hating corrupt politicians of all stripes, not just one side  

1:03:45 Can’t retire because the last few years have been appalling  

1:05:00 The courts aren’t equipped to deal with someone like Trump  

1:06:45 Could a third impeachment trial weaken the impeachment process?  

1:07:45 Mitch McConnell choked during Trump’s 2nd impeachment trial  

1:08:15 If McConnell voted to convict, others would have followed  

1:09:15 If we can’t impeach Trump for what he’s done… Then why have impeachment?  

1:10:30 Do we want a constitutional government or not?  

1:12:15 Impeaching Trump is as constitutional imperative for congress  

1:12:45 Trump is deteriorating psychologically and controls military & nukes  

1:13:30 Trump is creating his own domestic army with ICE  

1:14:15 The Republic, the constitution and rule of law are all on the line  

1:15:00 We can’t survive three more years of this  

1:16:00 In 250 years, we’ve never seen a government this corrupt  

1:17:45 The internet & media only have so much bandwidth, can’t handle Trump  

1:19:00 The government is only working to serve one man  

1:20:00 If we don’t impeach Trump, we’re throwing out the constitution  

1:20:45 Can you convince Hakeem Jeffries to impeach Trump a 3rd team?  

1:21:45 Trump & his actions will only get worse in the coming months  

1:23:45 American politics has deteriorated due to the weakness of congress  

1:24:15 Everything has gone to the courts since congress won’t legislate  

1:25:30 Constitutional amendment to nullify pardons introduced in house  

1:27:45 Passing amendments is hard, statutory fixes will be easier to pass  

1:29:15 Congress gets to set the rules, and has defaulted on responsibility  

1:30:00 The old “norms” need to be codified into law  

1:31:30 Our backs are against the wall, normal politics don’t apply  

1:33:15 Fighting fire with fire feeds into “whataboutism”  

1:34:45 Want to go back to an America where the president isn’t a “piece of shit”  

1:37:15 Only four people control congress & that’s the problem  

1:38:00 What do you say to the voter who supports Trump for policy reasons?  

1:39:30 Nobody has done more damage to restriction immigration than Trump  

1:40:30 How did the Reagan GOP you joined become Trump acolytes?  

1:41:15 Victimhood is clearly the currency of the right  

1:43:00 The right’s grievance complex leads them to only oppose the left  

1:44:15 The case for incrementalism, democracy is a dialogue  

1:45:30 There is a nihilistic animus amongst Trump’s inner circle  

1:48:00 Bush has stayed fairly quiet about Trump, should have spoken sooner  

1:51:00 The only way to win converts is to welcome them i.e. Marjorie Taylor-Greene  

1:52:00 Mike Pence deserves credit for J6, but should have conceded in November  

1:53:15 Marjorie Taylor-Greene is a case study in evolving away from Trump  

1:55:45 The spirit of democracy requires being to admit you were wrong  

1:56:30 Nobody likes to hear “I told you so” - It’s why Trumpism has persisted  

1:57:45 What questions do voters ask you that aren’t about Trump?  

2:00:30 We can’t do positive things for people until Trump is gone  

2:02:30 George Conway makes a persuasive argument for impeachment

2:05:00 History will be kinder if we use the constitution to throw out Trump

2:05:45 Ask Chuck

2:06:00 Why not give Trump accolades in exchange for good policy?

2:08:15 Fresh candidates on the pod restoring a sense of optimism

2:11:00 Did the Inflation Reduction Act include EPA’s ability to regulate air pollution?

2:15:00 Book recommendations for understanding fall of the Ottoman empire?

2:17:30 Which house races are you watching closely and why?

2:19:45 Not as optimistic about passing constitutional amendments

2:22:30 How did the one-term presidents lose if they weren’t politically astute?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.