Ep. 740: A New Mega Collection with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Importance of Probabilistic Forecasting
The accuracy of probability estimates of single events is inherently indeterminate. We have to at least have sophisticated about this as we are in thinking about, say, the batting averages of players in Major League Baseball or the free throw percentages of basketball players and so forth. It's a probabilistic game. We don't draw the inference that a forecaster is bad simply because the forecaster was on the wrong side of maybe on a particular call.
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