Ep. 740: A New Mega Collection with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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How to Bet on a 75% Chance Supreme Court Overturning the Law
David Duke: How much confidence should you lose in prediction markets when they go a 75% chance on something that didn't happen? He says good poker players know it in their bones that it helps to be granular. It's very easy to convince people in finance that there's an advantage in becoming more accurate and better calibrated, he says. But for serious parts of life, it really starts to open the question of betting, doesn't it? David Duke: Those are different games, trying to make money with a certain weighting probability.
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