Is the Recession Over?

The soft data continues to suggest that things are okay bond market pricing in one thing the equity market pricing in another and when you get those two competing forces together it's a grind so worth that tail end now with the final bottoming process everybody's looking for signs. The knee jerk reaction is we're slowing down we're going to go into a recession even if the recession is delayed consumers relatively healthy the set is ultra tight right now money growth is just turned negative which really nobody's talking about. If rates come down sharper than expected at the back end versus the front end's hand that all of a sudden valuations don't look so bad that's why we say stay balanced don't be overly