Shutdown Politics and ICE Leverage

Chuck Todd reveals that Trump's planned visit to Beijing on May 14th and 15th may function as a de facto deadline for wrapping up the Iran war, noting that Trump wants to end the conflict more than the Iranian regime does — a devastating negotiating position — and that his own voters are being hit hardest by soaring gas prices since they drive more than the average American, while lawmakers in compact D.C. remain insulated from the pain. He unpacks the Gulf states' precarious calculus: the Saudis and Emiratis are terrified Trump will retreat and leave Iran with leverage, knowing that once the U.S. leaves the region it isn't coming back anytime soon, but they also have significant business leverage over Trump and his family that complicates every decision. He then pivots to what should be a triumphant moment for Democrats — they've flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office without losing a single one, won two government shutdowns, and are operating in the best political climate in years — but finds a party that feels leaderless, with Chuck Schumer at the center of the dysfunction. He reports that some Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside, that he's become paranoid about leaks and tells different caucus members what they want to hear (a tactic known internally as "getting Schumed"), He closes with a sharp critique of Democrats in Virginia who are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting — arguing that the Democratic brand still has lower favorability than both the GOP and MAGA brands, that the Democratic base is smaller than the Republican base and therefore needs moderates to win, and that deploying the same gerrymandering tactics they claim to oppose is exactly the kind of hypocrisy that keeps voters from trusting the party.

Then, Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea.

The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones.

Finally, Chuck proposes a major change to the NCAA basketball tournament… an expanded, 96 team playoff that would benefit both athletics and academics, celebrates the start of the MLB season, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

07:30 We may have a new deadline for Trump to wrap up the Iran war

08:00 Trump to visit Beijing on May 14th & 15th

09:15 Trump wants to end the war more than the Iranian regime

10:45 Trump voters drive more, gas prices will impact them more

12:00 Lawmakers are insulated from gas prices since D.C. is compact

13:15 Saudis and Emirates afraid Trump will retreat & leave Iran with leverage

14:15 Gulf states know that once the U.S. leaves they aren’t coming back soon

15:45 Saudis and Emirates have business leverage over Trump & his family

16:30 Trump will have to weigh business vs. political interests

17:30 Ground forces still being deployed to the region

18:30 Democrats in great political climate, but party feels rudderless & leaderless

19:15 Dems have flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office, lost none

20:00 Democrats have ushered in two government shutdowns & winning both

21:30 ICE’s abuses drove Dems to shutdown, the public largely supports them 

22:15 Deploying ICE to airports is a dumb political move by Trump

23:45 Markwayne Mullin seems open to getting rid of ICE masking

25:45 The traveling public needs to be insulated from these political fights

27:00 Democrats should make the deal, but Chuck Schumer struggling to lead

27:45 Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside as leader

30:30 Brian Schatz could be potential replacement, but expressed support for Schumer

33:00 Many longtime establishment senators have rallied behind Schumer

34:00 Schumer seems paranoid of leaks, and doesn’t share enough information

35:30 Confusion between senate Dems over whether there was deal to end shutdown

36:45 Schumer trying to appease everyone, telling them what they want to hear

37:30 The tactic is known as “Getting Schumed”

39:30 Schumer seems to have lost his fastball & is always looking over his shoulder

40:45 Schumer has become the stand-in for the establishment

42:15 Schumer can’t be seen as fighting the progressives and losing

44:30 Abigail Spanberger didn’t run as a partisan, forced into partisan redistricting

46:15 Partisan redistricting results in the election of partisan hacks

49:15 Dem base is smaller than GOP base, Dems need to win moderates

50:15 Dems in Virginia are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting

51:15 Democratic brand still has lower favorability than GOP & MAGA

57:30 Rep. Johnny Olszewski joins the Chuck ToddCast

58:45 Pardon clause is biggest loophole between democracy & autocracy

1:00:30 Do you have more Republicans on board with the pardon amendment?

1:01:15 Pardon amendment is structured like a veto override

1:01:45 Trump’s pardons are exceptionally egregious

1:02:15 Biden’s preemptive pardons for family members were also terrible

1:04:00 Pardon power is a loophole right out of a monarchy

1:05:00 Congress wanted to curb pardon power after Nixon, but it stalled

1:06:45 We need people to believe in the institution of congress again

1:08:00 Should a pardon board be created similar to those at the state level?

1:10:00 What’s the strategy for getting the pardon amendment passed?

1:10:45 Nobody in congress thinks the proposal is a bad idea

1:13:00 We haven’t passed a meaningful amendment since JFK assassination

1:13:45 Repairing the democracy transcends partisan politics

1:15:00 What should Democrats prioritize if they retake the house majority?

1:15:45 If impeachable offenses exist, pursue them, but focus on voters’ needs

1:18:00 The current congress is one of the least productive ever

1:20:30 Both parties propose unpassable messaging bills

1:22:15 The minority is rarely treated well by the majority

1:24:30 Democrats can compromise on policy but not core values

1:25:30 Depending on the members, there may be space for compromise

1:26:00 R’s willing to compromise are most likely to lose their primary

1:26:45 Partisan redistricting + partisan elections leads to bad outcomes

1:30:00 Seriously concerned about certification of the 2028 election

1:31:00 Worried that Speaker Johnson will mess with the 2026 result?

1:33:30 Government has resources to make lives better if not for partisanship

1:36:00 Congress has passed almost no meaningful legislation

1:38:15 Congress needs to come together and ban bipartisan gerrymandering

1:40:30 No appetite in congress for uncapping size of house, talk of rank choice voting

1:41:45 If Hakeem Jeffries becomes speaker, he needs to focus on affordability

1:42:45 The numbers aren’t there to advance an impeachment inquiry

1:44:30 We need restraints on this president and future presidents

1:45:00 Thoughts on Wes Moore running for president?

1:46:00 What’s “electability” going to mean in 2028?  

1:50:00 Chuck’s proposal for the NCAA basketball tournament

1:51:15 Big East is closer to the A10 than the other power conferences

1:52:15 People say they love cinderellas in the Final Four, then don’t watch

1:53:30 Applications surge to mid-majors that advanced far in tournament

1:55:30 Schools were able to get higher quality students & faculty

1:56:00 Success in athletics leads to success in academics

1:56:30 Expand the tournament to 96 teams

1:57:45 96 teams is still less than 1/3rd of potential schools

1:59:15 Expanded tournament would be a net positive for higher education

2:00:45 Four regions, 24 teams per region - 2 teams seeded 9-16

2:03:30 You get more basketball, and a better chance for midmajors

2:05:45 Everybody would make more money, & it’d be more fan friendly

2:08:00 The best teams would still advance

2:10:30 It’s opening day in Major League Baseball

2:12:30 Most intriguing MLB teams

2:15:45 MLB dark horses

2:17:00 Ask Chuck

2:17:15 Why didn’t you include 1858 Lincoln v Douglas in Top 5 Illinois campaigns?

2:19:15 If we don’t get oil from the Strait of Hormuz, why have our gas prices gone up?

2:21:00 How can we rebalance focus from national to local politics?

2:26:30 Was Kristi Noem’s DHS PR campaign in service of a presidential run?

2:30:00 Do you think Trump will invade Iran with boots on the ground?

2:32:45 Who is advising the president on potential outcomes, intel seems degraded?

2:39:45 Could Democrats benefit from putting forward a “contract with America” 

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