Europe outperformance and capital flows

In this episode recorded immediately after Trump's record-breaking 108-minute State of the Union address, Chuck Todd argues that while Trump's base will love the "own the libs" moments — from trolling Democrats in the chamber to the raucous "USA" chants from Republicans — the speech was fundamentally a missed opportunity that did nothing to help the GOP heading into the midterms. He contends that Trump chose to be a party leader rather than a president, turning the address into something resembling an award show by packing it with medal presentations, the Olympic men's hockey team, honorees who deserved more dedicated recognition rather than being used as applause props in an already bloated speech. He argues that Trump's tone on the economy couldn't have been worse for Republicans: with his approval at 60% disapproval and the Supreme Court having just struck down his tariffs days earlier, Trump barely addressed voters' core concerns about costs and affordability, instead declaring a "turnaround for the ages" that doesn't match most Americans' lived experience. He notes Trump’s highlighting of Iran's ballistic missiles sounded like a pretext for war that won't play well with parts of his own base. He praises Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger's Democratic response as simple and effective — particularly her pointed questions about whether the president is actually working to make life more affordable — and argues she clearly won over independents. He closes with a bigger-picture observation: that there's a 60% majority coalition available on populist economic issues like protecting the safety net from cuts to fund tax breaks for the wealthy, but that Democrats still have a damaged brand despite Trump's terrible numbers, and that voters who thought they were getting first-term Trump are reckoning with something very different.

Then, Paul Auslander, President of SeaBridge Private Wealth, a division of SeaBridge Investment Advisors LLC joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the intersection of money, markets, and the current political moment. Auslander walks through how the political climate now factors directly into financial planning projections, noting that European indices doubled the S&P's performance last year as capital flows shift overseas, and that a growing number of wealthy clients are hedging by moving money out of the United States. He offers candid takes on the issues keeping investors up at night: the inevitability of Social Security cuts (though he argues simply pushing retirement age from 67 to 69 would stabilize the fund), the likely future of Social Security privatization, crypto's evolution from a technological revolution into a special interest that bought its own policy outcomes, and whether there's money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to be reversed. Auslander also explains why the bond market is a better barometer of economic health than the stock market, why private equity is sitting on mountains of sidelined capital, and why he remains cautiously bullish on 2026 — largely because AI is only in the "second inning" and massive disruption is still ahead.

The conversation also ventures into territory financial planners don't usually discuss publicly. Auslander addresses whether the wealthy are worried the "pitchforks are coming for them," pointing to economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales and a pop culture landscape that increasingly portrays corporations and the ultra-rich as villains. He breaks down the rise of family offices — private wealth management firms for the ultra-wealthy that take a long-term investment view — and explains why companies increasingly choose to stay private thanks to nearly unlimited private capital, rather than face the scrutiny of public markets. They also dig into the generational divide between investing and gambling, the casino-like nature of prediction markets, and the burden that post-Lehman Brothers insurance and regulatory requirements have placed on small businesses and regional banks that had nothing to do with the 2008 financial crisis. Auslander closes with a pointed message: that Fed independence and the rule of law are paramount to economic stability, and that centrism — not ideological extremism — remains the best way to run the country.

Finally, Chuck presents his updated ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip in the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:15 Trump’s base will love “own the libs” moments from SOTU

04:30 Most of Trump’s base was celebrating himself & animating his base

05:15 Trump’s tone on the economy couldn’t have been worse for GOP

06:30 Trump hid behind the glory of others, turned speech into award show

07:45 Awards are an incredible honor, deserved more time & recognition

09:30 Hopefully the recipients get dedicated events to honor them

10:00 Overloading the speech with awards felt a bit gimmicky

11:00 Trump mostly bit his tongue when addressing SCOTUS

11:30 Trump chose to be a party leader rather than president, trolled Dems

12:15 Spanberger’s response to SOTU was simple & effective

14:00 Spanberger definitely did better with independents than Trump

14:45 Trump’s proposal to make AI companies provide their power is a winner

15:15 Trump highlighting Iran’s ballistic missiles sounds like a pretext for war

16:30 Attacking Iran won’t play well with parts of Trump’s base

17:30 Trump didn’t talk about Venezuelan democracy, just oil

18:15 Trump’s still working with the Maduro regime

19:45 Are we trying to prevent Iranian nukes, or attempting regime change?

20:30 Trump claiming credit for getting Mexican cartel leader is a big faux pax

21:45 Allies feel like Trump will sell them out just so he can take credit

22:30 Trump didn’t address voters concerns on costs & the economy

23:45 Trump is better on the attack than defending his record

24:30 The speech didn’t give Republicans a boost for the midterms

25:30 Most Americans don’t support cutting safety net for tax cuts

27:30 There’s a 60% majority to be had on economic issues, not cultural ones

29:15 Voters keep picking the out party

30:30 There’s a majority coalition to be won with populist economic policy

32:30 This could be a moment for candidates to shed the party label

33:00 Democrats will have a strong midterm just being against Trump

33:45 Class politics could create a strong majority

35:30 Voters thought they’d get 1st term Trump, not what they’re getting

45:30 Paul Auslander joins the Chuck ToddCast

47:00 Paul’s origin story

48:15 Financial planning was mostly done by insurance companies in 70’s

49:00 Northerners move to FL for taxes & weather, but FL is pushing it socially

51:30 Fiduciary responsibility is the line of demarcation in financial planning

52:30 Factoring the political climate into financial planning projections

54:00 European index doubled the performance of the S&P last year

55:00 Tax policy is generally the biggest concern for investors

57:30 A cut to social security payments is bound to happen

58:30 If you push retirement from 67 to 69 the SS fund becomes healthy

1:00:45 Social security privatization likely to happen in the future

1:02:45 Money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to go away?

1:03:45 Crypto became a special interest & bought support for pro crypto policy

1:05:30 Crypto is a revolution that predates Trump & will outlast him

1:07:00 Lesson to be learned from rise then collapse in price of silver?

1:08:00 Central banks are buying silver, gold and assets

1:09:30 How many people are hedging by moving money out of the U.S.?

1:10:15 Europe is spending big money on arms & infrastructure

1:11:30 Definition of a “Family Office”

1:14:00 Family office investments are increasingly popular & take the long view

1:15:30 Are the investors/wealthy worried the pitchforks are coming for them?

1:17:00 Economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales

1:18:30 Pop culture portrays corporations & wealthy as the villains

1:20:00 Private equity has a lot of money on the sideline, looking for investments

1:23:00 The burden of insurance requirements on small business

1:25:30 Small & regional banks paying for the sins of Lehman Brothers

1:26:30 Companies stay private due to near unlimited private capital

1:27:15 Do young people like investing… or do they just like gambling?

1:28:15 Thoughts on prediction markets?

1:29:30 There’s a casino like approach to certain markets

1:30:45 If the house flips, you could see money get withdrawn from markets

1:32:00 How do Trump’s relationships with world leaders affect projections?

1:33:15 The bond market is more indicative of economic health than stock market

1:34:15 Uncertainty will impact earnings

1:34:45 Why are you feeling bullish on 2026?

1:37:00 AI is only in the 2nd inning. Disruption is coming

1:40:00 Thom Tillis sounds like a different man now that he’s retiring

1:41:00 Centrism seems like the best way to run the country

1:43:00 AI won’t be replacing financial advisors anytime soon

1:45:15 What’s one question you want every presidential candidate to answer?

1:45:45 Fed independence and rule of law are paramount

1:47:30 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Paul Auslander

1:48:45 ToddCast Top senate seats most likely to flip in midterms

1:49:00 #1 North Carolina

1:50:45 #2 Maine

1:53:45 #3 Michigan

1:58:15 #4 Alaska

2:01:15 #5 Texas

2:06:30 Honorable mentions: South Dakota & Minnesota

2:11:30 Ask Chuck

2:11:45 Promoting tariffs & AI have to only be bad for Trump?

2:12:45 Can Republicans not endorsed by Trump win their primaries?

2:14:15 Will lifting pesticide bans cause MAHA voters to turn on Trump?

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