Diplomatic Off-Ramps and Gulf Mediation

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.
On today's podcast:
1) The US-Israeli war on Iran reverberated across the Middle East and global markets on Tuesday, as oil and gas prices surged and Tehran vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. Both the US and Israeli militaries continued to bombard Iran’s capital. The US embassy in Riyadh was attacked by two drones, causing limited damage, and Israel sent soldiers into southern Lebanon, where the Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia is based. The escalation came as the US sent conflicting messages about how long the war might last, and an adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander told state TV that forces “will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through” the Strait of Hormuz. China, which buys most of Iran’s oil, urged “all sides” to ensure the safe passage of ships through the waterway, where traffic has effectively halted.
2) President Trump escalated his criticism of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in a fresh indication of how strained the two allies’ relationship has become over the US president’s efforts to enlist the UK’s help in its strikes against Iran. Starmer — who declined a US request to use British bases for offensive operations against the Islamic republic — has “not been helpful,” Trump said in an interview with The Sun tabloid. “It’s very sad to see that the relationship is obviously not what it was.” It’s the latest in a series of jibes Trump has made toward the Labour Party leader since he pushed back against Trump’s designs on Greenland earlier in the year. The US president has repeatedly criticized Starmer’s deal ceding sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius — something he did again in his Sun interview — and has also dismissed Britain’s role alongside American troops in the Afghanistan war.
3) US and Chinese trade negotiators are slated to meet in mid-March, according to people familiar with the matter, signaling a planned summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is pushing ahead despite American strikes against Iran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to convene in Paris at the end of next week to discuss business deals that could stem from the leaders’ meeting, said the people who requested anonymity to discuss plans that aren’t yet public. Both the timing and location of the meeting could still shift, the people added. Among the issues that could be addressed are a possible Chinese purchase of Boeing Co. planes, commitments to buy US soybeans and Taiwan, the self-ruled island China views as its own, some of the people said. The future of US fentanyl tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court could also be on the agenda, they added.

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