Ep. 214: Trend Following Winners, Daniel Kahneman, and Tina Turner with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Difference Between Long-Term Forecasting and Short-Term Predictions
In some cases, like chess or my wife's moods or many other problems that people solve, the answer is yes. And in the stock market and in long-term forecasting and sometimes even in medium-term forecasting as in wars, the answers are same. But you have to ask whether the world actually affords enough regularity so that it becomes learnable. I don't think that winning a few times proves that you're smart and losing a few times doesn't prove that you have to look at the world.
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