Chinese expectations if Iran's regime changes

The United States and Israel have launched strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a full-scale war in the Middle East. As the region descends into conflict, a fascinating debate has emerged about what this means for China: from the surge in Chinese defense stocks and weapons export opportunities, to the collapse of Beijing's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic agreement.

Is this a strategic disaster for China, or does the chaos actually create unexpected openings?

Andrea Ghiselli, research director at The ChinaMed Project and a lecturer in international politics at the University of Exeter, joins Eric to discuss the stark differences in how this conflict is discussed in China and in the Global West.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode:

• The US-Israel strikes on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei
• Why Chinese defense stocks surged to a 10-year high on the Shanghai Stock Exchange
• The "ally" myth: why China was never going to militarily defend Iran
• The collapse of China's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic détente
• Asymmetric warfare — why Iran's cheap drones may outlast America's expensive missiles
• China's energy security: oil stockpiling strategy and Strait of Hormuz exposure
• US munitions depletion and what it means for a potential Taiwan scenario
• What to watch in Chinese discourse if the Islamic Republic faces collapse

Show Notes:

• The ChinaMed Project: How Chinese Experts are Reacting to the American-Israeli Strikes on Iran by Andrea Ghiselli: https://tinyurl.com/mr439hdp
• The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory by Han Zhen: https://tinyurl.com/484p6bbn
• The China-Global South Project: Chinese Nationalist Voices Dismissed Online After Iran Strike Defies Predictions by Han Zhen: https://tinyurl.com/bdenrfyd

People to Follow Reference in this Episode:

• @GeringTuvia, analyst at Planet Nine, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub
• @EvanFeigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Join the Discussion:

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