AI Productivity, Fragility, and Edge Architectures

As our governments, institutions, and the public become more aware of the increasing pressures on material and energy availability, we've simultaneously seen powerful ripple effects for industrial policy, economic planning, and geopolitical dynamics. Parallel to this story are evolving strategies unique to each nation as new lines of power emerge alongside the trends of artificial intelligence, competing demands for rare earth metals, and an increasingly unstable global power balance that underpins all of it. How have these seemingly disparate factors combined to influence recent international events – and how can understanding them help us forecast the future of global governance and power?

In this episode, Nate is joined by financial and economic analysts, Craig Tindale and Michael Every, to discuss the widespread implications of growing geopolitical tensions over scarce resources and the rapidly changing foreign policy and economic statecraft that countries are implementing in response. Importantly, Craig and Michael emphasize the centrality of China and the U.S. as the two superpowers reshaping global alliances, and how industrial capacity and material constraints underpin each move made in their pursuit for dominance. Ultimately, they emphasize the need for clarity and realignment of the goals for economic and industrial policy as we leave behind the era of growth and grapple with a simplifying world.

What can the long overlooked story of rare earth metals, energy resources, and industrial capacity tell us about ongoing geopolitical events? How might continued AI development play a key role in the future of economic statecraft and the international balance of power? And finally, how should we re-think what economic growth actually serves in an era of resource constraints, geopolitical competition, and ecological crisis? In other words, what is GDP truly for? (And what is GPT really for?)

About Craig Tindale:

Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in East-to-West supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.

He's now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.

About Michael Every:

Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis.

Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.

Show Notes and More

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Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.

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