Ep. 534: The Swan Problem with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Importance of Dependence on Initial Condition
In this book, I have two possible metaphors. The first one concerns our understanding of the process that can lead to a given result is generally weak. To forecast the 53rd bounce in billiard balls, every single elementary particle in the universe needs to be part of your equation. See, you can forecast tomorrow, whether you won't be able to forecast next century's climate. And this is what comes out of these very simple equations. Much harder, much more precision at the initial conditional level and the structure of the model.
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