Strategic incoherence and modelling difficulty

In the second episode of the week recorded just 48 hours after the last one (around 12pm on Wed 1 April), Darren is joined once again by Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC to talk through what, again, has been a wild few days. In two Truth Social posts barely twelve hours apart, President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian desalination plants — a move legal experts describe as a war crime — and then told allies to "go get your own oil" signalling the United States may end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Taken together, these posts suggest something seismic: the effective repudiation of the Carter Doctrine, which since 1980 has been the foundational premise of U.S. security strategy in the Gulf.

But then Darren and Stephen turn to a long overdue conversation about what this means for Australia and the region. They cover:

• The alliance. Australia has maintained carefully calibrated support for the U.S. strikes, but if Trump walks away from Hormuz, the question for Canberra shifts from "will we join an American-led operation?" to "will we join a deal with Tehran that Washington might hate?" Trump is effectively telling allies to solve a problem he created — but may condemn whatever solution they find.
• The region. Singapore's foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan has framed this as an Asian crisis driven by an American war. Stephen reports on the fury across Southeast Asia, the limits of what countries like Singapore and the Philippines can actually do in response, and why — despite the rage — the short-term strategic calculus holding these alliances together may persist even as long-term trust fractures.
• Energy statecraft. Bloomberg reported this week that Penny Wong and Madeleine King are leveraging Australia's LNG exports in conversations with Asian partners. Stephen unpacks the competing signals from inside government — one camp talking about "bargaining chips," another insisting Australia is simply being a reliable supplier — and why the audience for much of this messaging may be domestic rather than international. Darren and Stephen explore the broader question of whether Australia needs a new toolkit for directing energy flows in a crisis.
• The Pacific. Pacific Island nations run almost entirely on diesel and face an existential crisis if supply disruptions continue into May and June. Stephen reports that Canberra is war-gaming options — from redirecting aid funding to sharing physical diesel supplies to folding the Pacific into bilateral energy deals with Singapore and others.
• The China-Pakistan five-point peace initiative, announced yesterday, is the first time a major power has proposed a concrete pathway to end the war. Darren raises Adam Tooze's provocative FT column on a "blueprint for Chinese global hegemony" — mocked and criticised, but capturing something real about the sheer demand for someone to lead. Darren and Stephen grapple with whether this crisis could pull China into a systemic stabiliser role it has never sought and may not want — and what that would mean for a world order already through the looking glass.

The episode concludes with both noting that the Prime Minister is due to address the nation in hours, and Trump is scheduled to speak overnight — meaning everything discussed may be overtaken by events before listeners press play.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Trump Truth Social post threatening to destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, and desalination plants (30 March 2026): https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/30/trump-iran-strikes-escalation-00850005

Trump Truth Social post: "Go get your own oil" (31 March 2026): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-01/trump-anger-at-allies-as-hegseth-visits-mideast/106519152

Wall Street Journal — "Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz" by Alexander Ward and Meridith McGraw (31 March 2026): https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-ee950ad4

Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan interview with Reuters (23 March 2026): https://www.mfa.gov.sg/newsroom/press-statements-transcripts-and-photos/transcript-of-minister-for-foreign-affairs-dr-vivian-balakrishnan-s-interview-with-reuters-global-managing-editor-for-world-news-mark-bendeich--23-march-2026/

The New Yorker — "Trump, Iran, and the Shadow of Suez" by Ishaan Tharoor (30 March 2026): https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/trump-iran-and-the-shadow-of-suez

Stephen Wertheim (Carnegie Endowment) on the purpose of U.S. military role in the Middle East — quoted in The New Yorker

The Economist — “Refine and dandy: Iran’s war bounty”, The Intelligence (podcast), 31 March:  https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/31/refine-and-dandy-irans-war-bounty

Bloomberg — "Australia Aims to Use LNG Clout to Secure Asian Fuel Supplies" by Keira Wright and James Mayger (31 March 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/australia-aims-to-use-lng-clout-to-secure-asian-fuel-supplies

Australia-Singapore joint statement on energy security (23 March 2026): https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-statement-energy-security

China-Pakistan five-point peace initiative (31 March 2026) : https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202603/t20260331_11884511.html

Adam Tooze — "A Blueprint for Chinese Global Leadership," Financial Times (c. 30 March 2026): https://www.ft.com/content/cf2eeead-461d-4e3b-aeb7-48b30114643c

Charles Kindleberger — The World in Depression, 1929–1939 (referenced in discussion of hegemonic stability): https://archive.org/details/worldindepressio00kind_0